Epoch 3 · since 2026-07-20 (current strategy generation)
Strategy Performance
Jul 20 – Aug 18 · 22 trading days
Realized returns (closed trades)
Resolved trades: 78
Small-sample figures; quoted with trade count until several expiry cycles have resolved.
Why two annualized numbers? · click to expand· click to collapse
They answer different questions. The realized figure above counts only trades that have fully finished — for each one, what it earned per dollar committed, for the days that dollar was committed — and ignores everything still open. The “Annualized Return” figure above it is the whole account's actual experience projected to a yearly rate: it includes those same finished trades, but it also counts every position still open — and it values each open position pessimistically, at what it would cost to pull out of that trade today, accepting the market's early-exit discount rather than waiting for the trade to finish. Income a position hasn't fully earned yet isn't counted; the possibility it finishes badly is. That built-in caution is most of the gap between the two numbers. As more trades reach the finish line — winners and the occasional loser alike — the two figures should gradually drift toward each other, and where they settle is the best estimate of the strategy's true long-run pace.
Normalized equity curve
Risk & quality vs. SPY
Annualized return by entry cohort
Each bar group covers trades entered that month or later — a fresh track record starting each month, so older experiments don't pollute the read on the current engine. Realized outcomes only: this strategy's wins are collected when options expire, and the first large expiry cohorts land July–September 2026 — until then these figures over-represent positions that were cut early and skew low.
View as table
| Cohort (entered … or later) | Resolved trades | On deployed capital | On total capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | 200 (+16 unrecorded, excluded) | -123.8% | -127.7% |
| Apr 2026 | 183 (+16 unrecorded, excluded) | -123.7% | -154.3% |
| May 2026 | 141 (+16 unrecorded, excluded) | -131.2% | -195.6% |
| Jun 2026 | 126 | -144.8% | -271.8% |
| Jul 2026 | 78 | -188.4% | -343.3% |
| Aug 2026 | 12 | -446.7% | -106.5% |